We are living in the most fascinating time in general aviation history. After decades of little change, we’re seeing cataclysmic change on all fronts. On the low end, Light Sport aircraft offer the promise of attracting new people back into aviation. In the middle, Cessna is developing their next generation piston aircraft and Cirrus has a new high flying, turbocharged SR22. Higher up, Cessna and Eclipse are both shipping Very Light Jets. And of course, glass cockpits are showing up everywhere, from light sport aircraft to the jets.
The one place to see it all is Oshkosh. For years, I read about it in the magazines and thought, "this sounds pretty good." But Oshkosh is so great that words and pictures simply don’t do it justice. You must go there and experience it yourself to appreciate how great it is. AirVenture is Mecca for pilots, and all pilots should make a pilgrimage to Oshkosh at least once during their lifetime. You can find my Oshkosh pictures by clicking here, or on the Oshkosh Photo Album located on the main page of this blog. I spent five days at Oshkosh this year, and it was…
fabulous as always. It was definitely on the warm side (high 80’s), but not intolerably hot. The main announcements at the show seemed to split to either the low end of aviation—light sport—or to the high end in the very light jet market. Let’s start with the former.
Light Sport
Probably the biggest announcement in Light Sport was that Cessna has made the decision to go forward and produce their new light sport aircraft, designated the Cessna 162 Skycatcher. Think Cessna 152 replacement but with—and we’re not making this up—a glass cockpit! Their display featured an order booth with a large LED sign showing the number of orders taken at the show. When I was there, more than 500 had been sold and I’d heard that over 700 sold by the end of the show. I think we’ll see many aging Cessna 150 and 152s replaced by this attractive new plane, but it won’t happen overnight. First shipments won’t occur for two years, and even then, plans are to build only 50 planes in the second half of 2009. A few hundred more will ship in 2010 meaning that if you place yourorder today, you won’t see your new airplane until 2011!
IBM made famous the marketing strategy of introducing new high end computers months and years before they ever shipped. This held the competition at bay while they finished the product. Garmin—a company I greatly admire—seems to have taken a page from this playbook. The Skycatcher model on display featured a new Garmin G300 glass cockpit. However, no one seems to know anything about the G300 features, other than it will be ready when the Skycatcher ships in two years. I guess by then even Cessna will know what what a G300 does (does anyone remember when Cessna used to build their own radios in Boonton, NJ?).
Cirrus Design also announced a new light sport aircraft, however they’ve taken a totally different tact. Rather than design a new plane from scratch, they’re partnering with a European company and modifying the design somewhat. Since a light sport aircraft is required to have a true airspeed of no more than 120 knots, Cirrus will probably make history when it become the first company that’s ever had to redesign an airplane—to make it SLOWER! How ironic, for a company that prides itself on its sleek, fast designs!
VLJ Market Segments itself
Prior to Oshkosh, I thought of the VLJ market for new light jets as being essentially one class of airplane, albeit with some airplanes a little bigger than others. However, it became clear to me that, going forward, there will be two distinct product categories: single-engine and twin-engine VLJs.
Early in the week, Eclipse not only announced a new single-engine VLJ, but they also flew it in and put it on display. That was a stunning move from the company that already dominated the “old” VLJ market with their twin-engine Eclipse 500, and seemingly didn’t need another product. However, it does allow them to reset the clock and once again sell jets for less than $1million, though with one less engine that their original sub-million jet.
Computer modeling played a big part in allowing Eclipse to rapidly design and build this new single-engine prototype. Apparently much of the aerodynamic modeling was accomplished by using the original twin-engine computer models, but with one engine turned off to simulate the thrust of a single engine design. Clever, but not surprising for a company as innovative as Eclipse.
If you’re budgeting for your next jet, consider this. You’ll now have at least five single engine jets to choose from in this rapidly growing sub segment that only a year ago Diamond seemed to have all to themselves with their Diamond D-Jet. Prices start at under $1 million, and you’ll be able to choose from Cirrus, Diamond, Eclipse, Epic or Piper.
If you don’t want to have the tiniest jet on the ramp however, you may want to buy from the growing number of twin engine jets, though figure on spending a minimum of $1.6 million. Currently only the Eclipse 500 and Cessna Mustang are shipping, but others are soon to follow including Adam, Epic, and Embraer.
The Middle Class
I’m not sure if we have a disappearing middle class, but there didn’t seem to be the same focus here as there was on the low and high end. Cessna was showing off a model of their NGP or next generation piston. Apparently this will be a family of aircraft with turbo and non-turbo versions and models with different numbers of seats. The current discussion is around a five seat version, but that could change prior to introduction. Virtually everyone who walked up asked how fast the plane would be and got the same answer—fast, really fast. But not retractable. Cirrus, Columbia and others seemed to have proven that with the new, slick composite designs, there’s just not much more speed to be gained by sucking up the gear, so they don’t. The price for their first plane will probably be north of $600K. Look at competitive planes from Columbia and Cirrus and you’ll quickly settle on that number.
If you’re looking for a long term prediction on where this market is going—here’s mine. This is totally a guess on my part, and not based on any inside information of any kind (in which case I probably wouldn’t share it). My bet is that the NGP family will ultimately replace Cessna’s metal airplanes, though we may not see it happen for ten or more years. They’ll probably start at the high end, offering nice alternatives to the 182 and perhaps the 206, and eventually have a model that competes with the 172. So in 2017 when this happens, you can say you read it here first!
The Million Pilot Challenge
I attended the NAFI Master CFI breakfast, which is one of the big benefits of being a Master CFI. Why? Because everyone is there. It’s a relatively intimate environment with perhaps 80 people attending so it’s easy to mingle and talk. This year’s attendees included Paul Poberezny, Chairman of EAA, Hal Sheevers, head of Sporty’s, Marion Blakey, FAA Administrator, Barry Valentine, former acting FAA Administrator, along with all of the NAFI Management.
The most important thing I heard was Paul Poberezny speaking on the criticality of growing the pilot population to 1 million pilots. Over the last 2 years, the pilot population has declined from around 800,000 to about 600,000 today. There are a variety of factors, including the lack of a GI Bill, which funded the cost of learning to fly for an earlier generation, rising fuel and insurance costs, and many more activities that compete for our time.
It’s critical that we reverse this trend, so that pilots continue to have a strong voice in American politics, which can not only where we can fly, but how much we’ll have to pay for the privilege. Notice I say privilege and not “right” as the constitution doesn’t guarantee our right to fly. We must continue to work on a daily basis to assure that we continue to have reasonable access to the skies.
There are a number of factors that will help. The new light sport aircraft will attract new segments of pilots who previously weren’t attracted to flying current aircraft. AOPA’s Project Pilot is a good first step that encourages members to sign up and mentor friends who have the interest and means to become pilots
There’s no question that the single biggest battle we face now is user fees, and AOPA is leading a good fight against them. You should contact your representatives in Congress and urge them to support House Bill 2881 which won’t require user fees to fund the FAA, and to vote against Senate Bill 1300 which would introduce user fees. Assuming we succeed in defeating user fees in the next few months, the 1 million pilot challenge should be foremost on your mind. I you have ideas on how best to reverse the decline in the pilot population, send me an email and I shall some of your feedback.